000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040346 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 06N116W to 04.5N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 118W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja California this evening. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail across the waters of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters as well as inside the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to freshen from north to south across the offshore waters tonight through Thu night as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Winds will increase to strong across the entire Gulf of California early Fri through early Sat, when seas will build to 4-7 ft. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will maintain seas near 8 ft for the next few days. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico south of Cabo San Lucas. Strong offshore gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 15N and will continue to diminish over this area, falling to 20 kt or less by Thu morning. Seas across the Tehuantepec area are currently in the 5-8 ft range, but are 8-9 ft will offshore in a mix of NE wind swell from Tehuantepec and NW swell impacting the regional waters. Seas across this area will subside below 8 ft by Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure across the NW Caribbean has weakened sufficiently across Central America to produce diminishing winds across Papagayo, where gap winds are currently 20-25 kt and extend offshore to 88W as depicted by recent ASCAT data. Winds will further diminish tonight through Thu, with winds pulsing to fresh to strong across the Papagayo region Thu night. Gulf of Panama: High pressure across the NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong N winds through Thu evening, with seas persisting in the 5-8 ft range north of 02N. Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will gradually subside tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak high pressure ridge extends west of Baja California Norte, and to the north of 1017 mb low pressure centered near 29N131.5W. The pressure gradient between these ridges and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 118W. A trough is supporting stronger trades from 05N to 15N between 120W and 125W. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the discussion waters within 390 nm across the NW quadrant of the low, with gale force wind gusts likely along 30N. Seas to 9 to 12 ft prevail W through NW of the low. Mixed NW and E swell is producing seas of 8-10 ft between 04-12N west of 95W. The low center will shift westward the next several days. This will allow high pressure to build SSE into the area waters east of 130W late Thu through Fri night. The resultant pressure gradient to the south will freshen the tradewinds south of 20N and west of 120W. Large NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to propagate west of 110W south of 12N through early Thu. $$ Stripling