000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032043 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N95W to 02N104W to 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 115W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N west of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to diminish over this area, falling to 20 kt or less by Thu morning. Seas are currently in the 8-10 ft range, and will subside below 8 ft by Thu morning. Weak high pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja California. Moderate northerly winds prevail across Baja California Norte, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters as well as inside the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to freshen across the offshore waters tonight through Thu night as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Winds will increase to strong across the entire Gulf of California early Fri through early Sat, when seas will build to 4-7 ft. NW swell over the far NW waters offshore of Baja California Norte will persist for the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure across the NW Caribbean has weakened enough to diminish winds below gale force. Winds are currently in the fresh to near gale force range. Winds will further diminish tonight, with fresh to strong offshore gap winds across the Papagayo region expected through Thu night. Gulf of Panama: High pressure across the NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong N winds through Thu evening. Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will gradually subside this afternoon through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridge extends west of Baja California Norte, as well as extending west of low pressure centered near 30N130W. The pressure gradient between these ridges and and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. A trough is supporting stronger trades from 05N to 15N between 120W and 125W. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the discussion waters within 390 nm NW quadrant of the low. Mixed NW and E swell of 8-10 ft persists between 04-12N west of 95W. The low will shift westward the next several days. High pressure will build SSE into the area waters east of 130W late Thu through Fri night. The resultant pressure gradient to the south will freshen the tradewinds south of 20N and west of 120W. Large NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to propagate west of 110W south of 12N through early Thu. $$ AL