000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031445 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Papagayo region Gale Warning: High pressure across the NW Caribbean is supporting minimal gale force winds over the Gulf of Papagayo this morning. Winds will diminish below gale force later this morning. Afterwards, fresh to strong offshore gap winds across the Papagayo region are expected through Thu night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on these Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04N93W to 02N106W to 05N119W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 116W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N west of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico has weakened enough to loosen the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. Winds have diminished below gale force. Winds will further diminish to 20 kt or less by Thu morning. Seas continue ti subside, currently peaking near 13 ft. Seas will subside below 12 ft late this morning, and below 8 ft by Thu morning. Weak high pressure prevails across the waters west of Baja California. Moderate northerly winds prevail across Baja California Norte, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters as well as inside the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to freshen across the offshore waters tonight through Thu night as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Winds will increase to strong across the entire Gulf of California early Fri through early Sat, when seas will build to 4-7 ft. NW swell over the far NW waters offshore of Baja California Norte will persist for the next few days. Peak seas of 8-9 ft are expected through this morning before subsiding. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo region. High pressure across the NW Caribbean will promote fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Panama through Thu evening. Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will gradually subside this afternoon through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface ridge extends from near 30N122W southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 20N. NW swell is bringing seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters north of 15N, west of 115W. Additionally, mixed NW and E swell of 8-10 ft persists between 04-12N west of 95W. Deep layered low pressure across the NE Pacific has worked down to the surface, with a 1018 mb low center analyzed near 29N129W. This low will shift westward the next several days. High pressure will build SSE into the area waters east of 130W late Thu through Fri night. The resultant pressure gradient to the south will freshen the tradewinds south of 20N and west of 120W. Large NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will propagate west of 110W south of 12N through early Thu. The NW swell event will cross most of the waters while gradually subsiding through Fri. $$ AL