000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030955 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support northerly gales across Tehuantepec through this morning. Winds have peaked in the past 24 hours and will further diminish through Wed night, to 20 kt or less, by Thu morning. Associated peak seas of 15-16 ft are expected presently downwind of the Gulf tonight and will subside below 12 ft late this morning. Gulf of Papagayo region Gale Warning: High pressure across the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong offshore gap winds across the Papagayo region through Thu night. These gap winds have pulsed to gale force tonight as high pressure continues to build across the western Caribbean behind a cold front, but will diminish below gale force around mid morning today. Associated seas are expected to peak near 12 ft this morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on these Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 02N108W to 10N115W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 115W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 06N between 87N and 90W, and from 04.5N to 09N west of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Weak high pressure prevails across the waters west of Baja California, centered along about 124W. Moderate northerly winds prevail across Baja California Norte tonight, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters as well as inside the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to freshen across the offshore waters Wed night through Thu night as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Winds will increase to strong across the entire Gulf of California early Fri through early Sat, when seas will build to 4-7 ft. NW swell over the far NW waters offshore of Baja California Norte will persist for the next few days. Peak seas of 8-9 ft are expected through this morning before subsiding. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo region. High pressure across the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong offshore NE winds across the Papagayo region through Thu night. These gap winds have pulsed to gale force tonight behind a cold front moving into the SW Caribbean. The same high pressure will promote fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Panama tonight through Thu evening. Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will gradually subside this afternoon through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface ridge extends from near 30N124W southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 20N. A surface trough from 13N122W to 06N124W is enhancing the trades to strong between 122W and 130W. NW swell is bringing seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters north of 15N, west of 115W. Additionally, mixed NW and E swell of 8-10 ft persists between 04-12N west of 95W. Deep layered low pressure across the NE Pacific has worked down to the surface, with a 1017 mb low center analyzed near 30N128W. This low will shift westward the next several days and allow high pressure to build SSE into the area waters east of 130W late Thu through Fri night. The resultant pressure gradient to the south will freshen the tradewinds south of 20N and west of 120W. Large NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will propagate west of 110W south of 12N through early Thu. The NW swell event will cross most of the waters while gradually diminishing through Fri. $$ Stripling