000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support northerly gales across Tehuantepec through Wed morning. Winds have peaked in the past 24 hours and will further diminish, to 20 kt or less, by Thu morning. Associated peak seas of 15-16 ft are expected downwind of the Gulf tonight and will subside below 12 ft Wed afternoon. Gulf of Papagayo region Gale Warning: High pressure across the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong offshore gap winds across the Papagayo region through Thu night. These gap winds will pulse to gale force tonight as high pressure builds across the western Caribbean behind a cold front. Associated seas are expected to peak near 12 ft early Wed. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on these Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04N92W to 01.5N102W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 115W and 126W and from 04N to 08N between 137W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Weak high pressure prevails across the waters west of Baja California, centered along about 125W. Moderate northerly winds prevail across Baja California Norte tonight, where seas are 6-8 ft. Light to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters as well as the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to increase to strong across the entire Gulf of California on Fri and Sat. Weak high pressure will remain west of the Baja California offshore waters for the next several days, contributing to generally moderate to fresh N winds. NW swell over the far NW waters offshore of Baja California Norte will persist for the next few days. Peak seas of 8-9 ft are expected through tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo region. High pressure across the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong offshore NE winds across the Papagayo region through Thu night. These gap winds will pulse to gale force tonight. The same high pressure will promote fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Panama Tue night through Thu night. Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface ridge extends from near 28N123W southeastward to near Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 20N. A surface trough from 12N126W to 06N126W is enhancing the trades to strong or near gale conditions between 125W and 130W. NW swell is bringing seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters north of 15N, west of 125W. Additionally, mixed NW and E swell of 8-10 ft persists between 04-12N west of 100W. Large NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will propagate west of 100W south of 12N through early Thu. The NW swell event will cross most of the waters while gradually diminishing through Fri. $$ Stripling