000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across the Gulf 
of Mexico will support gale to strong gale conditions until Wed 
morning. The gap wind event is expected to end by Thu morning. 
Associated seas are peaking near 20 ft and will drop below 12 ft
Wed afternoon.

Gulf of Papagayo region Gale Warning: High pressure building
southward across the NW Caribbean behind a cold front will 
maintain fresh to strong offshore gap winds across the Papagayo 
region through Thu night. These gap winds will pulse to gale
force tonight. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft Wed.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
these Gale Warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 03N94W to 06N124W to beyond 04.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N 
to 20N between 118W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale 
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. 

NW winds across the central and S Gulf of California are 
expected to increase to strong over the entire Gulf of 
California on Fri and Sat. Weak high pressure will remain west 
of the Baja California offshore waters for the next several days,
contributing to generally moderate to fresh N winds. NW swell 
over the far NW waters offshore of Baja California Norte will 
persist for the next few days. Peak seas of 8-9 ft are expected 
through tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale 
Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo region. 

High pressure across the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to 
strong offshore NE winds across the Papagayo region through Thu 
night. These gap winds will pulse to gale force tonight. The same
high pressure will promote fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf
of Panama Tue night through Thu night. Elsewhere winds are light
across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW 
swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue through Wed night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high centered near 
29N122W southeastward to near Cabo Corrientes. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades south of 
20N. However, an upper-level trough persisting near 15N130W is 
contributing to convection near the ITCZ as well as enhancing the
trades to strong or near gale conditions between 120W and 130W. 
NW swell is bringing seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters 
north of 15N, west of 125W. Additionally, mixed NW and E swell 
of 8-10 ft persists between 04-12N west of 100W.

The upper-level trough's enhancement of the trades near 15N130W 
will diminish by tonight. Large NE swell from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will propagate west of 100W south of 
12N through early Thu. The NW swell event will cross most of the 
waters while gradually diminishing through Fri.

$$
AL