000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is forcing gale-force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. A scatterometer pass this afternoon over W Gulf of Tehuantepec observed 35 kt, though stronger winds likely were occurring farther east. A peak of strong gale is likely this evening, though it is possible that the event could reach Storm force. Gale conditions will persist until Wed morning and these gap winds should cease by Thu morning. Associated seas will likely peak around 20 ft tonight into Tue afternoon and drop below 12 ft Wed afternoon. Gulf of Papagayo region Gale Warning: High pressure extending across NW Caribbean will maintain offshore NE winds across the Papagayo region through Thu night. These gap winds will pulse strong to near gale, except for Tue night when gales are expected. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft Wed. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on these Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N93W to 10N130W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Fresh to strong NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California will diminish by this evening, but should resume again over the entire Gulf of California on Fri and Sat. Peak seas over the central and S Gulf of California are 5-7 ft and the same is anticipated on Fri and Sat. Weak high pressure will reside west of the Baja California offshore waters for the next several days, contributing toward generally moderate to fresh N winds. New NW swell will spread into waters offshore of Baja California tonight and persist for the next few days. Peak seas of 8-10 ft are expected tonight through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo region. The same high pressure over the W Caribbean causing the gale for the Gulf of Papagayo region will also promote fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Panama Tue night through Thu night. Elsewhere winds are quiescent across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is occurring through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high centered near 27N123W southeastward to 18N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is producing NE to E trades of gentle to fresh breezes. However, an upper-level trough near 15N130W is contributing to convection in the ITCZ as well as enhancing the trades to strong or near gale conditions. Elsewhere, a weak cold front extends from 30N131W to 25N140W. While no significant winds are occurring in association with the front, a large NW swell of at least 12 ft is occurring along our 30N border with at least 8 ft extending north of 20N, west of 125W. Additionally, mixed NW and E swell of 8-10 ft persists between 05-12N west of 100W. The cold front will move slowly eastward during the next couple days before dissipating west of Baja California peninsula on Thu or Fri. The upper-level trough's enhancement of the trades near 15N130W will diminish by Tue night. Large NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will propagate west of 100W south of 12N through early Thu. The NW swell event will cross most of the waters while gradually diminishing through Fri. $$ Landsea