000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gales are continuing this morning, as indicated by the 30 kt N winds reported at Salina Cruz at 15 UTC. This gale event is being driven by high pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico, associated with a cold front sinking across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds across Tehuantepec will continue to spread south and southwestward away from the coast, with seas currently around 15 ft. Winds are then expected to increase to strong gale tonight, with gales continuing through Wed morning. These gap winds should cease by Thu morning. Associated seas will likely peak around 20 ft tonight into Tue afternoon and drop below 12 ft Wed afternoon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04N93W to 07N126W, where it is broken up by low pres 1007 mb near 05N130W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N128W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 120W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. With a well defined surface trough in place along the coast of northern mainland Mexico, fresh to strong NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California will diminish by this evening, but should resume again over the entire Gulf of California on Fri. Associated seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft across central portions of the Gulf of California tonight. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will reside west of the Baja California offshore waters for the next several days, contributing toward generally moderate to fresh N winds. New NW swell will spread into waters offshore of Baja California tonight and persist for the next few days. Peak seas of 8-10 ft are expected tonight through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure extending across the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh offshore NE winds across the Papagayo region, pulsing strong to near-gale at night through Thu night. Peak seas of 10-12 ft are expected on Wed. The same high pressure will promote fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Panama Tue night through Thu night. Peak seas of 6-7 ft are expected through through Thu night. Elsewhere winds are quiescent across the Central American and equatorial waters. NW swell up to 15 ft over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will occur from this afternoon through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail surrounding a weakening area of high pressure N of 23N. Decaying NW swell moving through the regional waters over the weekend will continue to move S-SE across the waters south of 20N today. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 115W, and strong NE winds to the west of a surface trough along about 128W south of 12N. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 11 ft range in mixed NW swell and NE tradewind swell. Trade winds will remain strong through tonight to the W of 125W as high pressure builds north of the area. A new cold front has begun to stall across NW portions of the area, and extends from 30N135W to beyond 26N140W. This front will moves slowly eastward and weaken over the next few days. New NW swell follows this front and will propagate across the far NW waters tonight and spread SE through Mon night. Peak seas of 12-14 ft are expected tonight through morning across these far NW waters. $$ Landsea/Stripling