000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gales have commenced across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, as verified by 0300-0400 UTC ASCAT data showing winds around 35 kt. This gale event is being driven by high pressure building across the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico, associated with a cold front sinking across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds across Tehuantepec will continue to spread south and southwestward away from the coast, with seas building to around 15 ft by morning. Winds are then expected to increase to near 45 kt Mon night, with gales continuing through late Tue night. Associated seas will likely peak around 20 ft Mon night into Tue. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N92W to 04N110W to 05.5N124W, where it is broken up by low pres 1010 mb near 05N130W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N134W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 21N between 118W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. With a well defined surface trough in place along the coast of northern mainland Mexico, strong NW winds have developed over the central and southern Gulf of California this evening and tonight. These winds will prevail through Mon morning before the trough weakens. Associated seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft across central portions of the Gulf of California tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in fading NW swell. Little change in winds is expected overnight through Mon, while seas will subside very slightly. New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon evening and dominate seas through Tue evening. Weak high pressure persisting W of the Baja offshore waters will maintain moderate N to NE winds across the waters during this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and extend offshore to 89W. However winds across the Gulf of Panama have diminished to fresh. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo, 4-6 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong offshore winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Mon, then will pulse each night through Thu night. As high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean, near gale conditions are possible in the Papagayo region Tue night into Wed. Expect northerly winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Panama to also increase to strong each night during this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail surrounding a weakening area of high pressure N of 23N. Decaying NW swell moving through the regional waters over the weekend will continue to move S-SE across the waters south of 20N today. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 115W, and strong NE winds to the west of a surface trough along about 128W south of 12N. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 11 ft range in mixed NW swell and NE tradewind swell. Trade winds will remain strong through tonight to the W of 125W as high pressure builds north of the area. A new cold front has begun to stall across NW portions of the area, and extends from 30N135W to beyond 26N140W. This front will moves slowly eastward and weaken over the next few days. New NW swell follows this front and will propagate across the far NW waters tonight and spread SE through Mon night. Peak seas of 12-14 ft are expected tonight through morning across these far NW waters. $$ Stripling