000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010353 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico tonight through Mon behind a cold front, and will induce significant northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. North winds to 30 kt have begun to spill across the immediate coastal waters of Tehuantepec this evening, and will quickly increase to gale-force during the next few hours in and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase during Mon and will likely peak near 45 kt Mon night, with gales continuing through Tue night. Associated seas will likely peak near 20 ft Mon night into Tue. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 06N89W to 04N109W to 07N126W, where it is broken up by a surface trough. The ITCZ then continues from 05N131W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 22N between 116W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. With a well defined surface trough in place along the coast of northern mainland Mexico, strong NW winds have begun to develop over the central and southern Gulf of California this evening. These winds will prevail tonight through Mon morning before the trough weakens. Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft across central portions of the Gulf of California tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in fading NW swell. Little change in winds is expected overnight through Mon, while seas will subside very slightly. New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon evening and dominate seas through Tue evening. Weak high pressure persisting W of the Baja offshore waters will maintain moderate N to NE winds across the waters during this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and extend offshore to 88W. However winds across the Gulf of Panama have diminished to fresh. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo, 5-7 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong offshore winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Mon, then will pulse through Thu night. As high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean, near gale conditions are possible in the Papagayo region Tue night into Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail surrounding a weakening area of high pressure N of 24N. Large and gradually decaying NW swell moving through the regional waters will continue to move S-SE across the waters south of 19N today. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 115W, and strong NE winds to the west of a surface trough along about 127W south of 12N. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 11 ft range in mixed NW swell and NE tradewind swell. Trade winds will remain strong through tonight to the W of 125W as high pressure builds north of the area. A new cold front is moving across NW portions of the area, and extends from 30N135W to beyond 27N140W. New NW swell follows this front and will propagate across the far NW waters tonight and spread SE through Mon night. $$ Stripling