000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build into the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico Sun behind a cold front and will induce another significant northerly gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gale-force winds will quickly develop Sun evening in and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase during Mon and may peak near 45 kt Mon night, with gales continuing through Tue night. Associated seas may peak near 20 ft Mon night into Tue. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The NE Pacific monsoonal circulation is no longer evident off of South and Central America. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 09.5N74W to 02N81W to 04N90W. The ITCZ extends from 04N90W to 03N105W to 06N124W, where it is broken up by a surface trough. The ITCZ then continues from 05N130W to beyond 02.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 114W and 122W and from 07N to 17N between 122W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Strong gap winds have ended across the Gulf in recent hours, but will return quickly late Sun as a Gulf of Mexico cold front reaches the region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail on both sides of central and southern portions of Baja California tonight. These winds will persist tonight across the Baja offshore waters, and increase modestly inside the Gulf of California, with areas of strong winds developing across the central and southern portions. The strong NW winds will prevail into Mon as a surface trough along the coast of mainland Mexico deepens. Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft across central portions of the Gulf of California Sun night. West of Baja California seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail tonight in decaying swell, with seas of 5 to 7 ft prevailing across the remaining offshore waters east of Manzanillo, to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon evening and prevail into Tue evening. Weak high pressure persisting W of the Baja offshore waters will maintain moderate N to NE winds across the waters during this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo, 6-8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong offshore winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Sun night, then will pulse through late next week. As high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean, near gale conditions are possible in the Papagayo region Tue night into Wed. Winds will diminish slightly across the Gulf of Panama late Sun then remain offshore through the middle of the upcoming week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail surrounding an area of high pressure N of 22N, with decaying swell of 7 to 8 ft currently prevailing. Large NW swell moving through the regional waters the past few days will continue to move S-SE across the waters south of 20N Sun. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to e trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N, west of 115W, and strong NE winds to the west of a surface trough along about 124W south of 13N. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 11 ft range in mixed NW swell and NE tradewind swell. Trade winds will remain strong through Sun to the W of 125W as high pressure builds north of the area. New NW swell has begun to propagate into the far NW waters tonight and will spread SE through Mon. $$ Stripling