000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build into the western Gulf of Mexico Sun behind a cold front and will combine with lower pressure associated with the Pacific ITCZ to the south to increase the pressure gradient over the area. Gale- force northerly winds will quickly develop Sun evening in and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds may peak near 45 kt Mon night, with gales continuing through Tue night. Seas may peak near 20 ft Mon night into Tue. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The NE Pacific monsoonal circulation is no longer evident off of South and Central America. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 09.5N75W to 02.5N81W to 04N87W. The ITCZ extends from 04N87W to 02.5N107W to 07N124W, where it is broken up by a surface trough. The ITCZ then continues from 06N129W and continues beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 113W and 121W and from 06N to 16N between 121W and 127W. Scattered light to moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 127W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Strong gap winds have ended across the Gulf in recent hours, but will return quickly late Sun as a Gulf of Mexico cold front reaches the region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail on both sides of central and southern portions of Baja California this evening. These winds will persist tonight across the Baja offshore waters, and increase modestly tonight inside the Gulf of California with areas of strong winds developing across the central and southern portions. The strong NW winds will prevail into Mon as a surface trough along the coast of mainland Mexico deepens. Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft across central portions of the Gulf of California Sun night. West of Baja California seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail this evening in decaying swell, with seas of 6 to 8 ft also occurring downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Locally strong winds are expected this evening along the coast of Cabo Corrientes. New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon evening and prevail into Tue evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo, 6-8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong offshore winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Sun night, then will pulse through late next week. As high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean, near gale conditions are possible in the Papagayo region Tue night into Wed. For the Gulf of Panama, wind will gradually diminish Sun. Generally moderate winds are expected elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail within an area of high pressure N of 22N, with decaying seas of up to 9 ft highest near 28N120W. Large NW swell will continue to move S-SE across the waters south of 20N this weekend. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong NE trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N, west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 11 ft range in mixed NW swell and NE tradewind swell. Trade winds will increase through Sun to the W of 120W as high pressure builds north of the area. New NW swell will propagate into the far NW waters tonight. $$ Stripling