000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The 30-hour forecast, starting at 30/0000 UTC, consists of NE gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet, from 10N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to 03N20W, 02N26W, 03N30W, and to 02N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 04N between 02W and 10W, and from 01N to 02N between 32W and 35W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from 40W eastward, and from 10N southward between 47W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. High pressure across the area will shift eastward through Saturday night. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, in advance of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast on Sunday. The front will move quickly across the basin, from Sunday through Monday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the region from Sunday night through early Tuesday. Strong southerly winds will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night, along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Large northerly swell across the west, hitting the Bahamas and the NE Caribbean Sea islands tonight, will cause potential coastal flooding and very high surf, with sea heights close to 20 feet. A dissipating cold front passes through the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic, to the southern coastal waters of Jamaica, to 17N87W about 120 nm to the ENE of the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from the dissipating front northward from the Dominican Republic westward. A surface trough passes through 21N59W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 18N62W in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 13N64W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are elsewhere within 210 nm to the northwest and to the north of the line 21N57W 16N62W 13N66W 13N74W. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond the border of Colombia and Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from 75W westward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The current weakening cold front, from Hispaniola across Jamaica to 17N87W, will drift southward and dissipate overnight. Strong high pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Gale-force wind conditions are expected near the coast of Colombia on Saturday night and early Sunday. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean Sea passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the weekend, with the largest swell expected from Saturday night through Sunday night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and extend from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean Sea by late Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N46W to 28N50W 22N60W, to the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic. The front is dissipating as it continues westward from the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic toward the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 60 nm on either side of the front, in the Atlantic Ocean. Gale-force winds are associated with this front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean, on either side of the cold front. The current cold front from 24N55W to Hispaniola will stall and weaken from 22N55W to Puerto Rico through Sunday. Large northerly swell associated with the front will affect most of the waters to the east of the Bahamas through Monday. Another strong cold front will move offshore northern Florida late on Sunday night, and then reach from near 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by late Tuesday. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front to the north of 27N. Seas associated with the front will build quickly in the forecast waters from Monday through Tuesday. $$ mt/dm