000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force northerly gap winds to 35 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec that are expected to continue into tonight. This will generate very large seas, which will peak around 16 ft. Seas generated from this gap wind event will propagate well away from the source region, with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by tonight. Looking ahead, more gales are likely Sun night through early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 06N90W. The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 07N115W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 118W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are generally gentle across the forecast waters, ahead of a weakening cold front moving into Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 5-9 ft range across much of the open waters. The exception is over the waters of Baja California Norte, where NW swell has propagated into the area and seas have built to 8-12 ft. The large NW swell off Baja California Norte will spread southward across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula into Sat, then subside. New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte by Mon night. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected within 150 nm E of the approaching cold front tonight this afternoon as the front enters the northern waters. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California today, and then brief fresh to strong NW winds will occur behind the front this evening. Locally strong winds are also possible this evening through Sat night offshore Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong SW winds are possible in the central and southern Gulf of California Sat night into Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, with fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-11 ft range in Gulf of Papagayo, 6-9 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through Sun, then will pulse through the middle of next week. Large seas generated from the Papagayo winds will merge with NW swell moving away from Tehuantepec, and also mix with NW swell moving through the region to create confused seas of 7-10 ft across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala tonight into Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through early Sun, with seas remaining up to around 9 ft. Generally moderate winds are expected elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends across the northern part of the discussion area from Baja California del Norte to 21N129W, with seas reaching as high as 13 ft north of the front along 30N. The large NW swell associated with the front will spread south- southeastward across the forecast region through the weekend. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure analyzed near 22N121W and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE trade winds north of the ITCZ to 19N, west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Trade winds will increase tonight as high pressure builds north of the area behind the cold front. New NW swell will propagate into the NW waters Sat night. $$ KONARIK