000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting strong gale force northerly gap winds to 40 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and are expected to continue for the next several hours. This event will generate very large seas, which will peak around 18 ft tonight and Fri. Seas generated from this gap wind event will propagate well away from the source region, with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by Fri night. Gale-force winds are forecast to persist through early Sat morning. Looking ahead, another gale-force gap wind event is possible Sun night into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 09.5N90W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N91W to 08.5N111W TO 05.5N117W to 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 07.5N E of 80W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 116W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are light to gentle across the forecast waters, ahead of a strong cold front approaching the coast of Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across much of the open waters. The exception is over the waters of Baja California Norte, where NW swell has propagated into the area and seas have built to 8-14 ft. The large NW swell off Baja California Norte will spread southward across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Sat morning, then subside this weekend. Seas across north and central portions of the Baja waters will peak during the next 6 hours. New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon night. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected within 150 nm E of the approaching cold front tonight through Fri morning as the front enters the northern waters. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California on Fri, and then brief strong NW winds behind the front Fri evening. Fresh to strong SW winds are possible in the central and southern Gulf of California Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate to fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in Gulf of Papagayo, 4-7 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through Sat night, then will pulse through early next week. Large seas generated from the Papagayo winds will merge with NW swell moving away from Tehuantepec, and also mix with NW swell moving through the region to create confused seas of 7-10 ft across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala Fri night through early Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through early Sun, with seas building to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front extends across the northern part of the discussion area from 30N119W to 23N130W to 21N140W, with seas reaching as high as 15 ft north of the front along 30N. The large NW swell associated with the front will spread south- southeastward across the forecast region over the next couple of days. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure analyzed near 22N121W and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE trade winds north of the ITCZ to 19N, west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 9 ft range. Trade winds will increase Friday as high pressure builds north of the area behind the cold front. New NW swell will propagate into the NW waters on Sunday. $$ Stripling