000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280908 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong northerly gap winds associated with high pressure building across southern Mexico in the wake of a cold front are funneling through the Chivela Pass, with gale-force winds occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will reach strong gale-force this morning and then again tonight. This event will generate very large seas, which will peak around 20 ft tonight and Fri. Seas generated from this gap wind event will propagate well away from the source region, with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by Fri night. Gale-force winds are forecast to persist through early Sat morning. Looking ahead, another gale-force gap wind event is possible Sun night into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N88W to 06N106W. The ITCZ extends from 06N113W to 04N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 109W and 113W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Moderate north to northwest winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. NW swell is producing 8 to 9 ft seas west of the Baja California peninsula southward to offshore Cabo Corrientes, with seas in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. A weakening cold front approaching Baja California Norte tonight will usher in another set of large NW swell that will spread southward west of the Baja California peninsula through Sat morning. This swell will subside this weekend. Another set of NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scatterometer data shows moderate winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The offshore winds across the Papagayo region will become fresh to strong through Sat night. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will become fresh to strong tonight through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will spread into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight through early Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the northwest part of the discussion area from 30N126W to 25N140W. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and seas are 16-19 ft. Large NW swell associated with the front will spread south- southeastward across the forecast region through Fri night. The gradient between weak high pressure analyzed near 25N120W and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 9 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. The pressure gradient will weaken further today as the area of high pressure weakens and shifts east. Trade winds will increase Friday as high pressure builds north of the area behind the cold front. Another set of NW swell will propagate into the NW waters on Sunday. $$ Mundell