000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272011 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure building in the wake of the front across eastern Mexico will help tighten the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region. Northerly winds behind the front will rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass, with gale force winds beginning this evening. Winds will approach strong gale force early Thu and then again Thu night. This event will generate very large seas, which will peak around 20 ft in the Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri. Seas generated from this gap wind event will propagate well west- southwest away from the Tehuantepec region, with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by Fri night. The gale force winds are forecast to persist through early Sat morning. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event is possible Sun night into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N82W to 06N108W. The ITCZ continues from 06N108W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 82W and 96W, and from 06N to 10N between 113W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. The latest ASCAT data indicates strong to near gale force winds over the southern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds prevail off Baja California Sur southward to off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. NW swell is producing seas in the 8-10 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula southward to offshore Cabo Corrientes, with seas in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. The strong to near gale northerly winds in the southern Gulf of California will diminish this evening. The NW swell across the area will continue to diminish through Thu. A weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte Thu night. This front will usher in another set of large NW swell that will spread southward W of the Baja California peninsula through Sat morning. This swell will subside this weekend. Another set of NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest ASCAT pass indicates moderate to fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The offshore winds across the Papagayo region will become fresh to strong tonight through Sat night. Fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu, becoming fresh to strong Thu night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will spread into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through early Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell continues across the forecast waters with seas greater than 8 ft over much of the waters N of 05N and west of 108W. High pressure prevails over the northern waters, ahead of a cold front that has entered the NW waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 9 to 11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the front, with seas near 15 ft. The pressure gradient will weaken tonight and Thu as the area of high pressure weakens. The NW swell across the area will subside through tonight. The cold front has ushered in large N to NW swell. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 18 ft along 30N tonight. The swell will propagate south- southeastward and gradually subside through the weekend. Another set of NW swell will propagate into the NW waters Sunday. $$ AL