000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271500 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front across eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient will develop between this area of building high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Northerly winds will rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass with gale force winds forecast beginning this evening in the Tehuantepec region. Winds will approach strong gale force early Thu and then again Thu night. This event will generate very large seas, which will peak around 20 ft in the Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri. Seas generated from this gap wind event will propagate well west- southwest away from the Tehuantepec region, with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by Fri night. The gale force winds are forecast to persist through early Sat morning. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event is possible Sun night into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N88W to 05N107W. The ITCZ continues from 05N107W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 87W and 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the southern Gulf of California will diminish later today. Winds and seas across the area will continue to diminish through Thu night. A weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte Thu night. This front will usher in a large NW swell that will spread southward W of the Baja California peninsula through Sat morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore winds across the Papagayo region will become fresh to strong tonight through Sat night. Fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu, becoming fresh to strong Thu night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will spread into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through early Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters, ahead of a cold front approaching the forecast area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 9 to 11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. The pressure gradient will weaken tonight and Thu as the cold front moves south of 30N into the forecast area. NW-N swell will across the region will diminish today. A cold front will drop south of 30N later today, with strong W to SW winds ahead of the front, and fresh to strong W to NW winds expected as the front passes. This front will usher in large N to NW swell, peaking near 18 ft along 30N tonight. The swell will propagate south-southeastward and gradually subside through the weekend. $$ AL