000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a cold front forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Wed will induce gale-force northerly winds funneling through the Chivela Pass in the Tehuantepec region Wed evening. Winds will reach strong gale-force early Thu through Thu night. Gale-force winds will persist through early Sat morning. This will generate very large seas, which will peak around 20 ft Thu night and Fri. Seas generated from this gap wind event will propagate well away from the source region, with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by Fri night. Another gale-force gap wind event is possible Sun night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 08N116W to 04N121W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 81W and 88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Winds have diminished considerably west of Baja California, and in the Gulf of California this afternoon and evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to persist from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes through Wed. Winds and seas across the area will continue to diminish through Thu night. A weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte Thu night, and large NW swell associated with the front will spread southward W of the Baja California peninsula through Sat morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore winds across the Papagayo region will become fresh to strong Wed night through Sat night. Fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu, becoming fresh to strong Thu night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will spread into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through early Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends SE to near Baja California Sur, ahead of a cold front north of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 9 to 11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. The pressure gradient will weaken Wed night and Thu as the cold front moves south of 30N into the forecast area. NW-N swell will diminish through Wed. A cold front will drop south of 30N on Wed, with strong W to SW winds ahead of the front, and fresh to strong W to NW winds expected as the front passes. This front will usher in large N to NW swell, peaking near 18 ft along 30N Wed night. This swell will propagate south- southeastward and gradually subside through the weekend. $$ Mundell