032 AXPZ20 KNHC 262041 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front across eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient will develop between this area of building high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Northerly winds will rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass with gale force winds forecast beginning Wed evening in the Tehuantepec region. Winds will approach strong gale force early Thu and then again Thu night. This event will generate very large seas, which will peak around 20 ft in the Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri. Seas generated from this gap wind event will propagate well west- southwest away from the Tehuantepec region, with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by Fri night. The gale force winds are forecast to persist through early Sat morning. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event is possible Sun night into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.. Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: Large, long-period, NW swell is propagating across the waters west of Baja California. Wave heights up to 16 ft are peaking now west of Baja California Norte. There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through this evening. Please refer to your local statements issued by your national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N80W to 05N123W. The ITCZ continues from 05N123W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between the coast of Colombia and 84W and from 02N to 07N between 91W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec region, as well as details on a large NW swell event west of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern Gulf of California, with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds prevail west of Baja California Norte, with seas in the 12 to 16 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N, except fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes. South of 18N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8-12 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California Sur, and 5-8 ft north of 18N to the Revillagigedo Islands and 4-6 ft south of 18N. The area of fresh to strong winds off Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California will diminish tonight. The large NW swell off Baja California will subside through Thu. Another set of northerly swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte Thu and spread southward through Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong Wed night through Sat night with building seas by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu, and then to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through early Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends SE from high pressure of 1034 mb centered northwest of the area near 43N156W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and within the monsoon trough, is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of 112W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. The strong pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through this evening. Large NW-N swell continues across the area, with seas greater than 8 ft over the waters N of 05N and west of 110W. Seas will gradually subside over the next few days. A cold front will drop south of 30N on Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind the front through early Thu. This front will usher in another set of large northerly swell, peaking near 18 ft Wed night. The swell will propagate southeastward while slowly subsiding through the weekend. Another set of NW swell will move into the NW waters Sat night. $$ AL