000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move by north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. High pressure will surge in behind the front across eastern Mexico and northerly winds will rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass with gale force winds forecast beginning Wed evening in the Tehuantepec region. Winds will approach strong gale early Thu and then again Thu night. The gale force winds are forecast to persist through early Sat morning. Very large seas will build with these winds with seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well west-southwest away from the Tehuantepec region, while peak seas will be around 20 ft Thu night through Fri. Northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving across the region with gale force winds in the northern Gulf of California from 29N to 31N, and also offshore of Baja California Norte. These winds will persist overnight, diminishing by early Tue. Seas will reach 8-11 ft in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both of these gale warnings. Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front is moving across Baja California tonight, with large long- period NW swell west of Baja California through Tue night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of Baja California Norte through tonight. There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through Tue evening. Please refer to your local statements issued by your national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 08N75W to 04N90W to 05N100W to 05N112W. The ITCZ extends from 06N117W to 06N126W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 98W and 106W. A low pressure area of 1008 mb is located between the termination of the monsoon trough and commencement of the ITCZ near 05N144W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 111W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for west of Baja California Norte and the Gulf of California, a Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec region, as well as details on a very large NW swell event west of Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N, except fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes, and fresh to strong elsewhere north of Punta Eugenia. South of 18N, gentle winds prevail. Seas are 8-12 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte and 5-8 ft north of 18N to Cabo San Lazaro, 3 ft or less in the central and southern Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft south of 18N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed. Another large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California Thu through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong Wed night through Sat night with building seas by the end of the week into the weekend. Seas will peak between 8-10 ft at that time. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through tonight, and then again Thu night through Fri night. Seas will pulse to 5-6 ft the next couple of days, and then 6-8 ft Thu night through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will continue to prevail elsewhere. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1035 mb northwest of the area near 35N142W extends a ridge well to the east-southeast to near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 25N and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. The strong pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through Tue night. A large NW-N swell event continues to spread southward across the area behind a strong cold front which extends from 27.5N113W to 23N125W, with seas currently 8-20 ft north of 25N, highest east of 130W. The swell will spread southward across much of the forecast area north of 15N between 110W and 135W while the cold front gradually dissipates. The next strong cold front will drop south of 30N on Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it through early Thu, mainly north of 25N. Another set of large northerly swell will accompany this system, propagating southward across the entire area through the end of the week. Winds and seas diminish somewhat for the start of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky