000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Mon. Gale force winds are forecast north of 29N in the Gulf of California Mon and Mon evening. Gale force winds are also forecast north of 31N west of Baja California Norte Mon afternoon and Mon night. Strong wind speeds are expected elsewhere north of Punta Eugenia through Tue. Seas will reach 8-12 ft in the northern Gulf of California Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Ashfall Advisory: Sangay Volcano in Ecuador at position 02.0S 78.3W is currently in a state of unrest and has produced a plume of volcanic ash extending westward offshore of Ecuador. Mariners traveling in the Pacific Ocean to the west of Ecuador are urged to exercise caution. This advisory is forecast to expire within the next couple of hours, by 24/1800 UTC. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling +1-305-229-4424. Please see the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center at https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html for more details. Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Mon, with large long- period NW swell expected west of Baja California Mon through Tue night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of Baja California Norte Mon afternoon through Mon night. There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details and refer to local statements issued by your national meteorological service. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 05N83W to 04N104W. The ITCZ extends from 04N104W to 08N118W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 113W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the northern Gulf of California and west of Baja California Norte, as well as details on an upcoming very large NW swell event. Mainly gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail offshore of Mexico, except for moderate to locally fresh N winds near Cabo Corrientes as well as northwest of Punta Eugenia. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except building seas of 8-12 ft prevail in incoming NW swell northwest of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed. Gale force northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night through the end of the week. Another large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California Thu and Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section for details on an Ashfall Advisory in effect for the offshore waters of Ecuador. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through the next several days, with the most significant winds expected Thu night. Seas will occasionally build to 5-6 ft with the pulsing winds, except 7-10 ft Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds and 4-6 ft seas are forecast across the Gulf of Panama for the rest of today through Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region may spread across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge southeastward all the way to near Cabo Corrientes. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, except locally fresh to strong. Seas in this area are in the 8-9 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten slightly today through Tue, allowing for trades to increase to fresh to strong. A NW-N swell event continues to spread southward across the area, with seas currently 9-12 ft north of 20N. This will be followed by larger, long-period NW swell arriving on Mon, associated with a strong cold front moving into Baja California Norte. The swell will spread southward across much of the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California. Looking ahead, another strong cold front may drop south of 30N by early Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it through Thu night. Another set of large northerly swell may accompany this system, propagating southward through the end of the week. $$ Hagen