000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240220 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte Gale Warning: A frontal trough moving across Baja California Norte will support fresh to strong winds north of Punta Eugenia and in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun morning. A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Mon. Gale force winds are forecast north of 29N west of Baja California Norte and also in the northern Gulf of California Mon and Mon night with fresh to strong elsewhere north of Punta Eugenia through Tue. Seas will reach 8-10 ft in the northern Gulf of California Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Ashfall Advisory: Sangay Volcano in Ecuador at position 02.0S 78.3W is currently in a state of unrest and has produced a plume of volcanic ash extending westward offshore of Ecuador just north of the Gulf of Guayaquil. Mariners traveling in the vicinity of Sangay Volcano are urged to exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling +1-305-229-4424. Please see the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center at https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html for more details. Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Mon, with large long- period NW swell expected west of Baja California Mon through Tue night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of Baja California Norte Mon afternoon through Mon night. There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details and refer to local statements issued by your national meteorological service. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 08N75W to 04N79W to 05N86W to 05N104W. The ITCZ extends from 05N104W to 08N122W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 125W and 129W, and from 03N to 12N between 129W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 92W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the northern Gulf of California and west of Baja California Norte, as well as details on an upcoming very large NW swell event. Mainly gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail offshore of Mexico, except for moderate to locally fresh N winds near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed. Gale force northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night through the end of next week. Late in the week, a gale event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning on Thu. Another large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California Thu and Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section for details on an Ashfall Advisory in effect for the offshore waters of Ecuador. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through the next several days, with the most significant winds expected Thu night. Seas will occasionally build to 5-6 ft with the pulsing winds, except 7-10 ft Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight along with 5-7 ft seas, with moderate to fresh winds and 4-6 ft seas Sun through Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region may spread across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1042 mb centered well northwest of the area near 44N155W extends a ridge southeastward all the way to near Cabo Corrientes. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 7-9 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten slightly later tonight through early next week allowing for trades to pulse to fresh to strong. A NW-N swell event is arriving S of 30N with seas currently 8-12 ft north of 26N. This will be followed by larger, long-period NW swell arriving on Mon, associated with a strong cold front moving into Baja California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California. Looking ahead, another strong cold front may drop south of 30N by early Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it through Thu night. Another set of large northerly swell may accompany this system, propagating southward through the end of next week. $$ Lewitsky