000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move through the northern Gulf of California Mon. Behind the front, strong to near gale force W winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California Mon. A localized area of gale force winds to 35 kt is forecast near the east coast of Baja California Norte from 29.5N to 30.5N. Winds will diminish below gale Mon night but remain strong through Tue. Seas will reach 8 to 10 ft Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Mon, with large long- period NW swell expected west of Baja California Mon through Tue night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of Baja California Norte Mon afternoon through Mon night. There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia Mon through early Tue. Near gale force NW winds are expected in the area, with gales to 35 kt Mon night north of 32N, offshore the California/Mexico border. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 05N80W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 06N110W to 03N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 113W and 119W, and from 03N to 14N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The latest ASCAT data show mainly gentle to moderate wind speeds offshore of Mexico, except for moderate to locally fresh N winds near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 5 to 6 ft. Off Baja California Norte, fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected tonight through Sun morning. Seas will increase to 8 to 11 ft offshore Baja California Norte late tonight. A strong cold front will bring very large swell west of Baja California Norte Mon-Tue. Near gale force winds are expected both west and east of Baja California Norte. See the Special Features section above for details. Winds and seas will diminish Wed. Late in the week, a gale event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle winds prevail across most of the regional offshore waters with seas of 5-6 ft. The exception is the Papagayo region, where fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are expected through Wed. Fresh northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1037 mb centered northwest of the area near 37N146W extends a ridge southward to near 15N. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 7 to 8 ft range in a mix of N swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist through the weekend. The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected to arrive late tonight, followed by large, long-period NW swell arriving on Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California. $$ Hagen