000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 03N96W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 05N112W to 03N132W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 78W and 81W, from 03N to 07N between 123W and 136W, and from 02N to 17N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate wind speeds are moving into the waters off Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California in association with a dissipating cold front. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected there tonight through Sun morning. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the offshore waters of Mexico except for moderate N winds near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, but will increase to 8 to 11 ft offshore Baja California Norte late tonight. A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Mon, with large long-period NW swell expected west of Baja California through Tue night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of Baja California Norte late Mon into early Tue. There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia Mon through early Tue. Winds will first increase west of Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Sun night as the front approaches and remain strong through Tue. Near gale force winds are expected late Monday in the northern Gulf of California and west of Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the regional offshore waters with seas of 5-6 ft. The exception is the Papagayo region, where fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are expected through Wed. Fresh northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1036 mb centered northwest of the area near 37N145W extends a ridge southward to near 15N. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 7 to 8 ft range in a mix of N swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist through the weekend. The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected to arrive tonight, followed by large, long-period NW swell arriving on Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California. $$ Hagen