000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230910
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 04N95W to 06N109W to 
05N120W. The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of the ITCZ
between 127W and 134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 138W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scatterometer data shows gentle winds over most of the offshore 
waters of Mexico except near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 
5 to 7 ft. A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte
on Mon, with large long-period NW swell expected west of Baja 
California through Tue night. Winds will increase west of Baja 
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Sun night as
the front approaches and remain fresh to strong through Tue. 
There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of
Punta Eugenia Mon through early Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds across most of 
the regional offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-6 ft. Fresh 
to occasionally strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo
region through Wed. Fresh northerly winds are expected across 
the Gulf of Panama Sat night through Sun night. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure northwest of the area extends a ridge southward to
near 15N. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures 
near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north 
of the ITCZ to near 20N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in 
the 7 to 8 ft range in a mix of N swell and NE to E wind waves, 
which is expected to persist through the weekend.

The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected 
to arrive later today, followed by large, long-period NW swell 
arriving on Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja 
California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of
the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas 
are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California.

$$
Mundell