000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230302
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 04N97W to 06N112W to
05N120W. The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 
132W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds over most of the 
offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. A weak 
cold front will enter the Baja California Norte waters tonight. 
A stronger cold front will follow Mon, with large long-period NW
swell expected west of Baja California through Tue night. Winds 
will increase west of Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf
of California Sun night as the front approaches and remain fresh
to strong through Tue. There is a significant risk of hazardous
surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia Mon through early Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds across most of
the regional offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-6 ft, except 
downstream of the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca, where seas are 
reaching 7 to 8 ft. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region through Wed. Fresh northerly
winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama Sat night through 
Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure northwest of the area extends a ridge southward to
near 15N. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures 
near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north 
of the ITCZ to near 20N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in 
the 7 to 8 ft range in a mix of N swell and NE to E wind waves, 
which is expected to persist through the weekend.

The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected 
to arrive this weekend, followed by large, long-period NW swell 
arriving on Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja 
California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of
the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas 
are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California.

$$
Mundell