000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222158
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 05N97W to 06N117W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N117W to 04N126W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted on satellite imagery from 03N to 06N
between 79W and 83W and from 02N to 14N between 133W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The latest ASCAT data show light to gentle winds over most of 
the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across most of
the Mexico offshore waters. A weak cold front will enter the 
Baja California Norte offshore waters on Sat with fresh to
occasionally strong W to NW winds behind it through early Sun. A
stronger cold front will follow on Mon, with large NW swell 
expected west of Baja California lasting through Tue night before
subsiding Wed. Winds will increase west of Baja California Norte
and in the northern Gulf of California Sun night as the front 
approaches, then remain strong through Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate winds 
across most of the regional offshore waters. The data show 
moderate to fresh winds offshore the Gulf of Papagayo and south 
of Panama. Offshore seas are generally 5-6 ft, except downstream 
of the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca, where seas are reaching 7-8
ft. Seas are also to 7 ft offshore Ecuador. Fresh to occasionally
strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through
Tue. Fresh northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Panama Sat through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front north of the area extends SW to near 30N130W. 
This weak cold front will move E toward Baja California Norte on 
Sat. Aside from the weak cold front, high pressure northwest of 
the area extends a ridge southward to near 16N. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ to near 
25N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 7 to 8 ft range 
in a mix of N swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to
persist through the weekend.

The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected 
to arrive this weekend, followed by larger NW swell arriving on 
Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja California 
Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of the
forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas are
expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California, from 26N to 30N
between Baja California and 128W.

$$
Hagen