000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221559
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N90W to 06N109W to
05N117W. The ITCZ continues from 05N117W to 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted on satellite imagery from 03N to 06N
between 78W and 81W, from 02N to 04N between 86W and 90W, and
from 01N to 14N between 136W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds prevail over most of the offshore waters 
of Mexico. Seas are subsiding across the region in response to 
the lighter winds. A weak cold front will enter the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters on Sat with fresh W to NW winds 
behind it. A stronger cold front will follow on Mon, with large 
NW swell expected west of Baja California lasting through Tue 
night before subsiding Wed. Winds will increase west of Baja 
California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Sun night
as the front approaches, then remain fresh to strong through 
Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds across most of
the regional offshore waters. Offshore seas are generally 6-7 ft,
except downstream of the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca, where
seas are reaching 8-9 ft. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds
are expected across the Papagayo region through Tue. Fresh 
northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama Sat night 
through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is analyzed from 09N118W to 12N119W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 11N to 14N between 113W and
121W.

A weak cold front extends from 30N133W to 29N136W. This weak cold
front will move E toward Baja California Norte on Sat. Aside from
the weak cold front, high pressure north of the area extends a 
ridge southward to near 16N. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 15N west of 125W.
Seas in this area are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of NW 
swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist 
through the weekend.

NW swell continues to subside across the open waters of the 
northeast Pacific with seas of 7-8 ft west of 115W. The next 
significant north to northwest swell event is expected to arrive
this weekend, followed by larger NW swell arriving on Mon, 
associated with a cold front moving into Baja California Norte.

$$
Hagen