000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220902
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 03N92W to 06N114W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06N114W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm of the trough axis between 86W and 
89W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds over most of the
offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are subsiding across the region
in repsonse to the lighter winds. A weak cold front will enter 
the Baja California Norte offshore waters on Sat. A stronger cold
front will follow on Mon, with large NW swell expected west of 
Baja California. Winds will increase west of Baja California
Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Sun night as the 
front approaches, then remain fresh to strong through Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds across most of
the regional offshore waters. Offshore seas are generally 6-7 ft,
except downstream of the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca. Fresh to
occasionally strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo 
region through Tue. Fresh northerly winds are expected across the
Gulf of Panama Sat night through Sun night. Gentle to moderate 
winds are expected elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure north of the area extends a ridge southward to 
near 16N. A weak cold front is analyzed north of the forecast
area between 130W and 140W. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to 
near 15N west of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 7 to 9 ft 
range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is 
expected to persist through the weekend.

NW swell continues to subside across the open waters of the 
northeast Pacific with seas of 8-9 ft west of 115W. The next 
significant north to northwest swell event expected to arrive 
this weekend, followed by larger NW swell arriving on Mon,
assosiated with a cold front moving into Baja California Norte.

$$
Mundell