000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220302
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 03N90W to 06N109W to
06N114W. The ITCZ continues from 06N114W to 05N130W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N 
to 10N between 108W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the trough axis between 83W and 89W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds over most of the
offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are subsiding across the region
in repsonse to the lighter winds. A weak cold front will enter 
the Baja California Norte offshore waters on Sat. A stronger cold
front will follow on Mon, with large NW swell expected west of 
Baja California. Winds will increase west of Baja California
Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Sun night as the 
front approaches, then remain fresh to strong through Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds across most of
the regional offshore waters. Offshore seas are generally 6 ft 
or less, except downstream of the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca.
Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are expected across the 
Papagayo region through Tue. Fresh northerly winds are expected 
across the Gulf of Panama tonight, and Sat night through Sun 
night. Gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure north of the area extends a ridge southward to 
near 16N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 15N west 
of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 9 ft range in a mix 
of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist 
through the weekend.

NW swell continues to subside across the open waters of the 
northeast Pacific with seas up to 10 ft west of 115W. The next 
significant north to northwest swell event expected to arrive 
this weekend, followed by larger NW swell arriving on Mon.

$$
Mundell