000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N100W to 05N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 09N E of 86W and from 07N to 
14N between 108W and 118W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb low pressure area centered near 31N113W is expected to
drift eastward into western Mexico this evening. NW swell propagating
through the Baja California Sur offshore waters will maintain 
seas to 8 ft through tonight. Strong high pressure building 
along western Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds off
the coast of Sinaloa, Jalisco and Colima, Mexico this evening 
through the weekend. 

A cold front will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters
on Saturday and will support moderate to fresh winds in this
region as well as over the northern Gulf of California where
strong winds are expected. Large NW swell will follow the front 
along with fresh NW winds increasing to fresh to strong N of 
Punta Eugenia Mon morning.

Fresh to strong northerly winds will start to diminish across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this evening. Moderate to locally
fresh N winds will gradually diminish afterwards through Fri
morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region  
through Mon. Mainly fresh winds will prevail afterwards through
the middle of the week. Seas during the peak winds will build to
10 ft. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will
diminish to moderate winds Fri evening and then prevail through
the middle of next week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure N of the area extends a ridge southward to near 16N.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near
the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
north of the convergence zone to near 15N west of 125W. Seas in 
this area are in the 8-10 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to
E wind waves, which is expected to persist through Fri.

NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters of 
the northeast Pacific with seas up to 10 ft W of 115W. Seas will
subside across the open waters by the end of the week, with the 
next significant north to northwest swell event expected to 
arrive this weekend.

$$
Ramos