000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N100W to 05N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection si from 01N to 07N E of
81W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 
81W and 85W, and from 05N to 14N between 110W and 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb low pressure area centered near 30N117W is expected to
drift eastward and weaken today, with moderate winds behind it 
diminishing. NW swell propagating through the Baja California Sur
offshore waters will maintain seas to 8 ft through this evening.
Strong high pressure building along western Mexico and will
support moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of Jalisco and
Colima, Mexico this evening through the weekend. 

A cold front will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters
on Saturday and will support moderate to fresh winds in this
region as well as over the northern Gulf of California. Large NW
swell will follow the front along with fresh NW winds increasing
to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia Mon morning.

Strong to near gale force northerly winds will start to diminish 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Strong winds will
gradually diminish afterwards through Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region 
at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to 
fresh across the Gulf of Panama each evening and night through 
Fri then remain moderate through early next week. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Seas will build slightly 
from in mixed long period SW and W swell through early Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest 
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 16N 
west of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range in a mix
of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist
through Fri.

NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters of 
the northeast Pacific with seas up to 11 ft west of the surface 
low near 30N117W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft 
over much of the forecast waters west of 115W today. Seas will 
subside across the open waters by the end of the week, with the 
next significant north to northwest swell event expected to 
arrive this weekend.

$$
Ramos