000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 05N86W to 07N110W to 
05N120W. The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to 04N126W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 07N to 10N between 109W and 114W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An occluded 1012 mb low pressure area centered near 30N117W is 
expected to drift eastward and weaken today, with winds on both 
sides of the Baja California peninsula diminishing. The low will
move inland across Baja California Norte later today, and marine
conditions will improve. NW swell propagating through the Baja 
waters will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft through this evening. 
Large NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Mon.

Strong northerly winds are expected to continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region through Fri, with downstream seas peaking 
at 10 ft in the morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region 
at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to 
fresh across the Gulf of Panama each evening and night through 
Fri then remain moderate through early next week. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Seas will build slightly 
from in mixed long period SW and W swell through early Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest 
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 16N 
west of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range in a mix
of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist
through Fri.

NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters of 
the northeast Pacific with seas up to 11 ft west of the surface 
low near 30N117W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft 
over much of the forecast waters west of 115W today. Seas will 
subside across the open waters by the end of the week, with the 
next significant north to northwest swell event expected to 
arrive this weekend.

$$
Mundell