000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202214
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 05N97W to 07.5N113W to
04.5N129W to 06N135W. The ITCZ continues from 06N135W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 02N to 05N E of 81W to Colombian coast, and from 06N to 12N 
between 101W and 110W. Scattered to locally numerous light 
elevated convection is noted from 14N to 25N between 103W and 
113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong southerly winds continue this afternoon across
the offshore waters of Baja north of Cabo San Lazaro, and across
north and central portions of the Gulf of California. These winds
are being driven by a deep layered low pressure system centered
over Guadalupe Island, where a 1008 mb surface low has been
analyzed. This low is expected to drift eastward and rapidly 
weaken this afternoon through tonight, with winds across the
offshore waters and Gulf of California diminishing steadily. The
low will move inland across Baja California Norte on Thu and
leave a weak pressure gradient across the area, and a significant
improvement in marine conditions. Large NW swell propagating 
through the Baja waters during this time will maintain seas in 
excess of 8 ft through Thu. Seas across the northern Gulf of 
California have peaked at 5-7 ft and will gradually subside
through Wed.

Strong northerly winds are expected to continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region as high pressure continues to extend into
the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico 
will shift NE and gradually weaken the local pressure gradient
through Thu. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse to just below
gale force again tonight, and then to near 30 kt nightly through
early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 10 ft each morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo
region at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse 
to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly 
from west to east in mixed long period S and W swell through 
early Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The deep-layer low pressure offshore of Baja California Norte 
supports a 1008 mb surface low near 29N119W. This low will 
continue to produce strong winds around the periphery during the 
next 6 hours. Maximum seas of around 15 ft are found just to the
NW of the low near 28N126W, in the area of strongest N winds. 
The low will drift eastward and rapidly weaken this afternoon
through tonight.

High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest 
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 16N 
west of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a 
mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to 
persist through Thu.

Large NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters
of the northeast Pacific with seas up to 15 ft to the west of  
the surface low near 29N119W. NW swell will maintain seas 
greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 115W 
through Thu. Seas will subside across the open waters by the end 
of the week, with the next significant north to northwest swell 
event expected to arrive this weekend.

$$
Stripling