000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 07N95W to 06N119W to 
04N134W. The ITCZ continues from 04N134W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of the 
monsoon trough from 10N to 18N between 101W and 110W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong southerly winds prevail on either side of the 
Baja California peninsula, in association with a surface low near
29N122W. This low is expected to drift eastward and rapidly 
weaken today, producing fresh south to southwest winds across 
the region through this afternoon. Winds are expected to diminish
quickly tonight and Thu as the low moves onshore across Baja 
California Norte. Large NW swell propagating through the Baja 
waters during this time will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft 
through Thu, except in the Gulf of California.

Strong northerly winds are expected to continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region as high pressure continues to extend into
the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico 
will shift NE and gradually weaken the local pressure gradient
through Thu. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse to just below
gale force again tonight, and then to near 30 kt nightly through
early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 10 ft each day.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo
region at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse 
to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly 
from west to east in mixed long period S and NW swell through 
early Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep-layer 1000 mb low pressure area is centered SW of San 
Diego California near 31N122W. This low will drift southward 
overnight, and an area of strong winds is expected west of the
low center during the next 6 to 12 hours. Seas are expected to 
be 16-17 ft in the area of strongest winds. The low will drift 
eastward and rapidly weaken later today.

High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest 
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 22N 
west of 130W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix
of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist
through Thu.

Large NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters
of the northeast Pacific with seas up to 17 ft near the surface
low with gale-force winds near 29N122W. NW swell will maintain 
seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 
115W through Thu. Seas will subside across the open waters by the
end of the week, with the next significant north to northwest 
swell event expected to arrive this weekend.

$$
Mundell