000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200347 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A deep-layer 1000 mb low pressure area is centered SW of San Diego California near 31N122W. This low will drift southward overnight, and an area of gale-force winds is expected south of 30N between 123W and 124W during the next 3 to 6 hours. Seas are expected to build to 16-17 ft in the area of gale-force winds. By Wed morning, the low will drift eastward and rapidly weaken. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 07N94W to 07N134W. The ITCZ continues from 07N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of the monsoon trough from 08N to 17N between 100W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail on either side of the Baja California peninsula, in association with the surface low near 31N122W. This low is expected to drift eastward and rapidly weaken through Wed morning, producing fresh to strong south to southwest winds across the region through Wed afternoon. Winds are expected to diminish quickly Wed night and Thu as the low moves onshore across Baja Norte. Large NW swell propagating through the Baja waters during this time will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft through Thu, except in the Gulf of California. Strong northerly winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as high pressure continues to extend into the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will shift NE and gradually weaken the local pressure gradient through Thu. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse to just below gale force tonight and Wed night, and then to near 30 kt nightly through early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 10 ft each day. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly from west to east in mixed long period S and NW swell Wed through early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for information on a gale warning west of Guadalupe Island. High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 22N west of 130W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist through mid-week. Large NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters of the northeast Pacific with seas up to 16 ft near the surface low with gale-force winds near 31N122W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 115W through Thu. Seas will subside across the open waters by the end of the week, with the next significant north to northwesterly swell event expected to arrive this weekend. $$ Mundell