000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191624 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning west of Guadalupe Island near 29N123W: Deep layered low pressure continues across the Pacific waters from central California to offshore of the Baja California Peninsula. A 1007 mb surface low near 29.5N119W is aiding in producing fresh to strong northerly winds sinking into the northern waters between 124W and 130W this morning. This low is expected to linger near this area as a second deepening low moves off the California coast and slides southward today. These two lows will begin to merge by this evening and quickly deepen. Strong N to NW winds will continue through afternoon N of 28N and west of 120W. Gale- force winds are expected west of the low, N of 28.5N and W of 122W from this afternoon, 20/0000 UTC through this evening, 20/0600 UTC. Seas are expected to build to 16-18 ft near the gale-force winds. By tonight into early Wed morning, the low will drift eastward while rapidly weakening. Fresh to strong winds will continue around the low through Wed evening as it moves closer to Baja California. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Wed night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from NEAR 08N77W to 09N83W to 07N89W to 08N110W to 07N133W. The ITCZ continues from 07N133W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12.5N between 90W and 103W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 103W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, in association with the 1007 mb surface low near 29.5N119W. This low is expected to linger near the area as another deep layered low moves off the California coast and slides southward, merging with the 1007 mb low and intensify this evening. Fresh south to southwest winds will develop across most of the Baja waters today. The low will drift eastward while it rapidly weakens tonight through Wed morning while producing fresh to strong south to southwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja through Wed afternoon. By Wed into Thu, winds are expected to diminish quickly as the low moves onshore across Baja Norte Thu evening. Large NW swell propagating through the Baja waters during this time will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft through Thu and 10-12 ft or greater across the outer waters of Baja Norte Tue through Wed. Gentle to moderate southerly winds generally prevail across the Gulf of California waters. As the surface low pressure deepens offshore of Baja Norte, south to southwest winds will become fresh to strong across central and north portions of the Gulf this afternoon through Wed. Seas will build to near 7 ft during this time. Winds and seas will diminish significantly on Thu. Strong northerly winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 14N with seas 8-10 ft as high pressure continues to extend the Gulf of Mexico. The supporting high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will shift NE today and gradually weaken the local pressure gradient. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse nightly through early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 8-10 ft each early morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will pulse to near 30 kt across the Papagayo region nightly through early Fri, with fresh to strong winds pulsing through the weekend. Seas will peak 8-10 ft. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly from west to east in mixed long period S and NW swell Wed through early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for information on the gale warning west of Guadalupe Island. High pressure well NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 18N west of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves which will persist through midweek. Large NW swell continues moving south and east across the open waters of the northeast Pacific with seas up to 13 ft near 30N126W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through Tue night. The swell will subside south of 20N and west of 115W by Thu, while fresh northerly swell develops north of 20N in association with the deepening area of low pressure. Seas will subside throughout the open waters by the end of the week with the next significant northerly swell event expected to arrive by the weekend. $$ Stripling