000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190957 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning west of Guadalupe Island near 29N123W: At 0600 UTC, a 1007 mb low was NW of Punta Eugenia near 30N118W with fresh to strong winds west of the low, N of 25N and W of 122W. This low is expected to linger near this area as another deep layered low moves off the California coast and slides southward today. These two lows will begin to merge by this evening and quickly deepen. Strong N to NW winds will continue through afternoon N of 28N and west of 120W. Gale- force winds are expected west of the low, N of 28.5N and W of 122W from this afternoon, 20/0000 UTC through this evening, 20/0600 UTC. Seas are expected to build to 18 ft near the gale- force winds. By tonight into early Wed morning, the low will drift eastward while rapidly weakening. Fresh to strong winds will continue around the low through Wed evening as it moves closer to Baja California. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Wed night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N84W to a 1010 mb low near 06N120W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 95W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 128W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail near Baja California Norte as the 1007 mb low sits NW of Punta Eugenia. This low is expected to linger near the area as another deep layered low moves off the California coast and slides southward, merging with the 1007 mb low and intensify this evening. Fresh south to southwest winds will develop across most of the Baja waters today. The low will drift eastward while it rapidly weakens tonight through Wed while producing fresh to strong south to southwest winds through Wed afternoon. By Wed into Thu, winds are expected to diminish quickly as the low moves onshore across Baja Norte Thu evening. Large NW swell propagating through the Baja waters during this time will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft through Thu and 10-12 ft or greater across the outer waters of Baja Norte Tue through Wed. Gentle to moderate southerly winds generally prevail across the Gulf of California waters. As the surface low pressure deepens offshore of Baja Norte, south to southwest winds will become fresh to strong across central and north portions of the Gulf by this afternoon through Wed. Seas will build to near 6 ft during this time. Winds and seas will diminish significantly on Thu. Strong northerly winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 13N with seas 8-10 ft as high pressure continues to extend the Gulf of Mexico. The supporting high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will shift NE today and gradually weaken the local pressure gradient. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse nightly through early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 8-10 ft each early morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds will pulse to strong across the Papagayo region nightly through early Fri, with fresh to strong winds pulsing through the weekend. Seas will peak 8-10 ft. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly from west to east in mixed long period S and NW swell Wed through early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for information on the gale warning west of Gualupe Island. High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 18N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves which will persist through midweek. Large NW swell continues moving south and east across the open waters of the northeast Pacific with seas up to 13 ft near 30N125W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through Tue night. The swell will subside south of 20N and west of 115W by Thu, while fresh northerly swell develops north of 20N in association with the deepening area of low pressure. Seas will subside throughout the open waters by the end of the week with the next significant northerly swell event expected to arrive by the weekend. $$ AReinhart