000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale force this afternoon, and verified by 1627 UTC ASCAT data. The Gale Warning for the area has been discontinued. See below for more information on expected area conditions. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 08N83W to 05N103W to low pres 1010 mb near 07.5N118W. The ITCZ continues from near 08N123W to 09N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N between 88W and 107W, and from 05.5N to 11.5N between 110W to 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Variable winds less than 15 kt will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through this evening as weak low pressure extends along the offshore waters of Baja California. A 1011 mb low pressure area near 29N118.5W will drift eastward tonight, with gentle to moderate westerly winds expected to develop across the waters south of Punta Eugenia overnight. Deep layered low pressure near 31N122W will sink southward tonight through Tuesday and intensify, and develop a surface low across the outer waters of Baja California Norte. The weak low will become absorbed as this occurs, with fresh south to southwest winds developing across most of the Baja waters by Tue afternoon. This new low will then shift slowly eastward Tue night through Wed producing strong south to southwest winds through Wed afternoon, before the low begins to weaken and winds diminish rather quickly through late Thu. The much weakened low is expected to move onshore across Baja Norte Thu evening. Large NW swell propagating through the Baja waters during this time will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft through late Wed, and 11 ft or greater across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Gentle southerly winds generally prevail across the Gulf of California waters this afternoon, as low pressure prevails offshore of Baja. As the surface low pressure develops offshore of Baja Norte on Tue, south to southwest winds inside the Gulf will begin to freshen, and become fresh to locally strong across central and north portions Tue afternoon through Wed. Seas will build to near 6 ft during this time. Winds and seas will diminish significantly on Thu. The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region continues to gradually weaken this afternoon, and continues to support strong northerly winds across the Gulf north of 13N, where seas are 8-11 ft. The supporting high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will shift NE through Tue and act to gradually weaken the local pressure gradient. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each night tonight through early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 8 to 10 ft each early morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds will pulse to strong across the Papagayo region each night through early Fri. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly from west to east in mixed long period S and NW swell Wed through early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 18N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves and are expected to persist through midweek. The developing nw low pressure offshore of Baja California Norte on Tue will support an area of fresh to strong northerly winds on the western side of the low, N of 25N between 120W and 131W, early Tue through Wed. Seas will build to 14 ft through Wed as NW swell mixes with the wind wave generated by the low pressure. Large NW swell continues moving south and east across the open waters of the northeast Pacific, with seas up to 14 ft near 30N126W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through Tue night. The swell will subside south of 20N and west of 115W by Thu, while fresh northerly swell develops north of 20N in association with the deepening area of low pressure. Seas will subside throughout the open waters by the end of the week, with the next significant northerly swell event expected to arrive by the weekend. $$ Stripling