000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181611 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region continues to support minimal gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf north of 15N this morning. Peak seas are around 11 ft across and just downstream of the gale-force winds. The supporting high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico is weakening and will shift NE through Tue and act to gradually weaken the local pressure gradient. Winds across Tehuantepec are expected to diminish below gale force around noontime today. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each night thereafter through early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 8 to 10 ft each early morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 08N84W to 05N103W to low pres 1010 mb near 07.5N118W. The ITCZ continues from near 08N123W to 09N127W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 88W and 107W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 112W to 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gale warning remains in effect for the Tehuantepec region this morning. Please see Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through this evening as a weak ridge remains well NW of the area. A 1012 mb low pressure area NW of Punta Eugenia near 29N119W will continue deepen as it meanders west of Baja California Norte through Wed and weaken by Wed night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected near the low Tue through Wed. Otherwise, large NW swell propagating into the waters west of Baja California will impact the offshore waters through midweek. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf this morning. By Tue, as the surface low begins to deepen NW of Punta Eugenia, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the region. Winds will become fresh to possibly locally strong Tue evening through Wed morning. Gentle to moderate winds will return Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through early Fri. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to strong across the Gulf of Panama through early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly from west to east in mixed long period S and NW swell Wed through early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 18N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves and are expected to persist through midweek. The low pressure offshore of Baja California Norte will support an area of fresh to strong northerly winds on the western side of the low, N of 25N between 120W and 131W, Mon evening through Wed. Seas will build to 14 ft through Wed. Large NW swell continues moving south and east of 30N140W with seas up to 14 ft near 30N130W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through Tue night. The swell will subside south of 20N and west of 115W by Thu, while fresh northerly swell develops north of 20N in association with the deepening area of low pressure. Seas will subside throughout the open waters by the end of the week, with the next potential northerly swell event arriving by the weekend. $$ Stripling