000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172008 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region will induce gale-force northerly winds late this evening through Mon morning, with pulsing fresh to strong winds thereafter through early Fri. Seas are forecast to build to around 11-12 ft with the gale-force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 05N80W to 08N88W to 05N100W to 09N120W to 08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm north-northeast of the monsoon trough between 108W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 127W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains NW of the area. Sets of NW swell west of Baja California will continue to impact the offshore waters through the middle of the week. A 1016 mb low pressure area NW of Punta Eugenia near 29N118.5W will deepen as it meanders west of Baja California Norte through Wed and weaken by Wed night. Fresh to possibly strong winds and building seas are expected near the low, on either side of the Baja California peninsula, Tue through Wed. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds prevail, except locally moderate N winds in the northern Gulf this afternoon. By Mon evening, as the surface low begins to deepen NW of Punta Eugenia, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the region. Winds will become fresh to possibly locally strong Tue afternoon through Wed morning. Gentle to moderate winds will return Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through early Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly from west to east in mixed long period S and NW swell Wed night through early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to around 20N west of 110W. Seas in this area are in the 7-10 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Low pressure offshore of southern California and Baja California Norte will support an area of fresh to strong northerly winds on the western side of the low to 26N between 120W and 132W Mon evening through Wed. A large NW swell has pushed southeast of 30N140W today with seas up to 17 ft near 30N138W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through Tue night. The swell will subside somewhat south of 20N by early Wed, while fresh northerly swell develops north of 20N in association with the deepening area of low pressure. Seas will subside throughout the open waters by the end of the week, with the next potential northerly swell event arriving by the start of the weekend. $$ Lewitsky