000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region will induce gale-force northerly winds late tonight through Mon morning, with pulsing fresh to strong winds thereafter through the week. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft with the gale-force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N76W to 06N80W to 08N86W to 04N107W to 09N122W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 109W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 128W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains NW of the area. NW swell west of Baja California will continue to impact the offshore waters through Mon with reinforcing sets propagating across the area the middle of the week. A 1014 mb low pressure area NW of Punta Eugenia near 30N118W will deepen as it meanders west of Baja California Norte through Wed and weaken by Wed night. Fresh to possibly strong winds and building seas are expected near the low, on either side of the Baja California peninsula, Tue through Wed. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds prevail. By Mon evening, as the surface low begins to deepen NW of Punta Eugenia, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the region. Winds will become fresh to strong Tue afternoon through Wed morning. Gentle to moderate winds will return by late Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build in mixed long period S and NW swell Thu and Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 7-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. A reinforcing set of large NW swell has begun to push southeast of 30N140W with seas near 17 ft near 30N140W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the middle of the week. Expect seas to subside by the end of the week. Low pressure offshore of southern California and Baja California Norte will support an area of fresh to strong northerly winds on the western side of the low to 26N between 120W and 132W Mon evening through early Wed. $$ Lewitsky