000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170339 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across southern Mexico will funnel northerly winds through the Chivela Pass with gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region through early Sun. Seas are expected to be up to 12-13 ft during the time of gale conditions. Another brief episode of gale-force winds is forecast for late Sun night into early Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 06N77W to 08N121W. The ITCZ continues from 08N121W to 07N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 112W to 120W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 124W to 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains NW of the area. NW swell west of Baja California will build tonight with reinforcing sets propagating across the area the middle of next week. A low pressure area will develop NW of Punta Eugenia Mon and deepen as it meanders west of Baja California Norte through Wed. It will begin to weaken by Wed night and Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected east of the low, on either side of the Baja California peninsula, Mon night through Wed. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds prevail. By Mon evening, as the surface low develops NW of Punta Eugenia, fresh southerly winds will develop in the region. Winds will become fresh to strong Tue morning through early Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Thu night. Large seas generated by winds in the Tehuantepec region in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador will subside Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama Mon through early Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 25N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 7-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Large long period NW swell will subside through tonight as it pushes into Baja California. Another set of large NW swell will increase seas to 16-18 ft near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the middle of next week, subsiding by the end of next week. $$ AReinhart