000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across southern Mexico will funnel northerly winds through the Chivela Pass with gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region through early Sun. Seas are expected to be up to 12-13 ft during the time of gale conditions. Another brief episode of gale force winds is forecast for late Sun night into early Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 06N83W to 06N105W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 116W and 125W, and from 05N to 10N between 125W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 07N between 95W and 99W and from 05N to 08N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains NW of the area. NW swell west of Baja California will build tonight with reinforcing sets propagating across the area the middle of next week. A low pressure area will develop NW of Punta Eugenia Mon, and deepen as it meanders west of Baja California Norte through Wed, then weaken Wed night and Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected east of the low, on either side of the Baja California peninsula, Mon night through Wed. Gulf of California: Fresh southerly winds will develop along the Gulf beginning Mon evening, associated with the low developing NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds will become fresh to strong Tue morning through early Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Thu night. Large seas generated by winds in the Tehuantepec region in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador will subside Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama Mon through early Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 25N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 7-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Large long period NW swell in the NW and N-central part of the forecast waters will subside through tonight as it pushes into Baja California. Another set of large NW swell will increase seas to 16-18 ft near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the middle of next week, subsiding by the end of next week. $$ Lewitsky