000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161505 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across southern Mexico will funnel strong winds through the Chivela Pass and generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Seas are expected to build to 13-14 ft during the time of gale conditions. Another brief episode of gale force winds are forecast for late Sun night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 06N80W to 07N100W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 81W, including the Gulf of Panama, and from 05N to 11N between 115W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains NW of the area. Offshore seas will build today as NW swell spreads across the region. The swell will propagate across the remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja California through Mon. A low pressure area will develop NW of Punta Eugenia Mon, and deepen as it meanders west of Baja California Norte through Wed, then weaken Wed night and Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected east of the low, on either side of the Baja California peninsula, Mon night through Wed. Gulf of California: Fresh southerly winds will develop along the Gulf beginning Mon evening, associated with the low developing NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds will become fresh to strong Tue morning through early Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Wed. Large seas generated by winds in the Tehuantepec region will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama Mon through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Large long period NW swell in the NW and N-central part of the forecast waters will subside through tonight as it pushes into Baja California. Another set of large NW swell will increase seas to 17-19 ft near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the middle of next week. $$ Lewitsky