000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong north winds associated with high pressure behind a cold front across southern Mexico will funnel through the Chivela Pass and generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region overnight, then continue through early Sun. Seas are expected to build to 14 ft during the time of gale conditions. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N120W. The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to 05N134W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 82W and 85W, and from 06N to 08N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate Nw to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains NW of the area. Offshore seas will increase Sat evening as reinforcing NW swell enters the region. The swell will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja California through Mon when a center of low pressure NW of Punta Eugenia begin to move across the northern Baja offshore waters. The low will deepen and drift slowly southward through Wed, then gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas to 14 ft are expected on either side of the Baja California peninsula Mon night through early Wed. Gulf of California: Fresh southerly winds will develop along the Gulf beginning Mon evening associated with the low developing NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds will become fresh to strong Tue morning through early Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region Sat through Wed. Large seas generated by strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama Mon through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well north of the area extends a ridge into the northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. Large long period NW swell in the NW part of the forecast waters will subside through Sat night as it pushes into Baja California. Another set of large NW swell will increase seas to 19-20 ft near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the middle of next week. $$ Mundell