000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move across the basin through early Saturday. Strong northerly winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela Pass and generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region beginning tonight, and continuing through early Sun. Seas are expected to build to 14 ft during the time of gale conditions. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to a 1012 low near 06N100W to 07N117W. The ITCZ continues from 07N117W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 78W and 86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 15N between 90W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Mainly light to gentle winds with locally moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains in place NW of the area. NW swell propagating through the waters west of the Baja California with seas to 9 ft will subside below 8 ft tonight, then increase again Sat evening as reinforcing NW swell enters the region. This new swell will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja California through Mon when a center of low pressure NW of Punta Eugenia begin to move across the northern Baja offshore waters. The low will deepen and remain nearly stationary through Wed evening and then gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas to 14 ft are expected over the northern and central Baja California peninsula offshore waters Mon night through early Wed. Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the northern and central Gulf of California. These winds will diminish to moderate this evening. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast along the gulf beginning Mon evening associated with the low developing NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds will increase to fresh to strong Mon morning and prevail through Tue morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Large seas to be generated by an upcoming gale event in the Tehuantepec region will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat and Sun. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama Mon and Tue next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well north of the area extends a ridge into the northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. Large long period NW swell will sweep into the NW part of the forecast waters this evening, with maximum seas to 18-19 ft near 30N140W. Another set of NW swell will increase seas to 20 ft near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the middle of next week. $$ Ramos