000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front in the NW Gulf of
Mexico will move across the basin through early Saturday. Strong
northerly winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela
Pass and generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region beginning this evening, and continuing through early Sun.
Seas are expected to build to 14 ft during the time of gale 
conditions. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1010 low near 07N103W
to 07N116W. The ITCZ continues from 07N116W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E 
of 85W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N 
between 100W and 118W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. 
Please see Special Features section for more details.

Mainly light to gentle with locally moderate NW to N winds 
will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and 
SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains in place NW of 
the area. 

NW swell propagating through the waters west of the Baja 
California with seas to 9 ft will subside below 8 ft tonight, 
then increase again Sat evening as reinforcing NW swell enters 
the region. This new swell will spread across the remainder of 
the offshore waters west of Baja California through Sun. A low 
pressure area will develop near Punta Eugenia Mon night, then 
deepen and drift across the Baja California offshore waters 
through Tue night, with fresh to strong winds expected, and 
building seas to 15 ft.

Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin 
region of United States is supporting fresh to strong NW winds 
across the northern and central Gulf of California. These winds 
will diminish to moderate this evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through 
the middle of next week. Large seas generated by gales in the 
Tehuantepec region will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador Sat through Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak, slow-moving cold front is near 30N140W. High pressure 
well north of the area extends a ridge into the northern forecast
waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near 
the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in 
the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. 

The cold front will stall and weaken today. Large long period NW
swell associated with the front will sweep into the NW part of
the forecast waters today, with maximum seas to 18-19 ft near 
30N140W. Another set of NW swell will increase seas to 20 ft near
30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain 
seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 
100W through the middle of next week. 

$$
Ramos