000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front in the NW Gulf of Mexico will move into the SW Gulf through early Saturday. Strong northerly winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela Pass and generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region beginning early Sat morning, and continue through early Sun. Seas are expected to build to 14 ft during the time of gale conditions. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 07N92W to 09N106W to 07N116W. The ITCZ continues from 07N116W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 99W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Please see Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico, and are expected to through Mon evening as a ridge remains in place NW of the area. Large NW swell continues to propagate through the waters west of the Baja California, with seas to 10 ft reaching Baja California Sur as indicated by a recent altimeter pass. Seas greater than 8 ft will continue today, briefly subside to 7-8 ft tonight, then increase again Sat as reinforcing NW swell enters the region. This new swell will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja California through Sun. A low pressure area will develop near Punta Eugenia Mon night, then deepen and drift across the Baja California offshore waters through Tue night, with fresh to strong winds expected, and building seas to 15 ft. Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California. Fresh NW winds over the northern and central gulf will diminish later today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Large seas generated by gales in the Tehuantepec region will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak, slow-moving cold front is near 30N140W. High pressure well north of the area extends a ridge into the northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. The cold front will stall and weaken today. Large long period NW swell associated with the front will sweep into the NW part of the forecast waters today, with maximum seas to 18-19 ft near 30N140W. Another set of NW swell will increase seas to 20 ft near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through the middle of next week. $$ Mundell